Abstract: 154
Type: Scientific Session
Abstract Category: N/A
The Barcelona CIS cohort is an inception longitudinal cohort that started recruiting patients in 1995. More that 1300 CIS patients have been prospectively recruited for clinical assessment and brain MRI follow-up. Our long-term data confirm that MS natural history has changed in the treatment era and that a lower proportion of patients develop accumulation of disability. However, though the rate of disability accumulation is extremely variable, patients may develop moderate disability and a low proportion of patients with an aggressive phenotype will reach an EDSS of 6.0 within 10 years. Stratifying the risk for developing moderate and severe disability is key for implementing precision medicine. A prognostic model for assessing individual risk for second attack and moderate disability was developed incorporating baseline characteristics such as age, sex, topography, oligoclonal bands and MRI number of lesions, as well as, disease modifying treatment onset and presence of new T2 lesions during the first year, using Cox regression models and classification tree analysis. This model was further improved by incorporating lesion topography and activity and, more recently, modifiable environmental factors such as vitamin D and cotinine serum levels (as a surrogate marker for smoking status). If validated, this dynamic model could be of great help to implement a personalized therapeutic decision tool.
Disclosure: M Tintore has received compensation for consulting services and speaking honoraria from Almirall, Bayer Schering Pharma, , Biogen-Idec, Genzyme, Merck-Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, and Teva Pharmaceuticals. MT is co-editor of Multiple Sclerosis Journal-ETC
Abstract: 154
Type: Scientific Session
Abstract Category: N/A
The Barcelona CIS cohort is an inception longitudinal cohort that started recruiting patients in 1995. More that 1300 CIS patients have been prospectively recruited for clinical assessment and brain MRI follow-up. Our long-term data confirm that MS natural history has changed in the treatment era and that a lower proportion of patients develop accumulation of disability. However, though the rate of disability accumulation is extremely variable, patients may develop moderate disability and a low proportion of patients with an aggressive phenotype will reach an EDSS of 6.0 within 10 years. Stratifying the risk for developing moderate and severe disability is key for implementing precision medicine. A prognostic model for assessing individual risk for second attack and moderate disability was developed incorporating baseline characteristics such as age, sex, topography, oligoclonal bands and MRI number of lesions, as well as, disease modifying treatment onset and presence of new T2 lesions during the first year, using Cox regression models and classification tree analysis. This model was further improved by incorporating lesion topography and activity and, more recently, modifiable environmental factors such as vitamin D and cotinine serum levels (as a surrogate marker for smoking status). If validated, this dynamic model could be of great help to implement a personalized therapeutic decision tool.
Disclosure: M Tintore has received compensation for consulting services and speaking honoraria from Almirall, Bayer Schering Pharma, , Biogen-Idec, Genzyme, Merck-Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, and Teva Pharmaceuticals. MT is co-editor of Multiple Sclerosis Journal-ETC