Contributions
Abstract: EP1347
Type: ePoster
Abstract Category: Clinical aspects of MS - 5 Epidemiology
Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of nervous System which affects young adults, especially young females. This study aimed to assess the geographical distribution of MS in Fars province in southern Iran using the spatial methods. Fars Province is one of the largest provinces in Iran which has a population of 4.6 million people.
Patients and methods: A total number of 5,868 patients diagnosed with MS according to the McDonald's criteria during 1990-2016 in Fars Province. Demographic and case-related information was obtained from the Iran MS Society (IMSS), Shiraz office database. Overall Fars Province has 29 counties. We used Bayesian spatial and Bayesian spatio-temporal models to study relative risk and trend of MS incidence in the Province and each county separately.
Results: Out of 5,868 registered MS patients, 82% were female. County-level crude incidence ratio ranged from 0.31 to 9 cases per 100,000 populations. The highest smoothed SIR (1.80) was in the Shiraz County in the center of Fars province, while the lowest smoothed SIR (0.11) was in the Zarindasht County in southern Fars. Moreover, there is an increase trend in MS incidence but very smooth.
Conclusion: Here we analyzed the geographical distribution of MS in part of Iran, to obtain a reliable map of disease incidence. This map may help us to identify the possible cluster and localize the risk areas. This epidemiologic approach may help us to find any possible underlying environmental causes of MS in Iran.
Keywords: Bayesian Spatio-tempral, BYM model, Multiple sclerosis, Incidence
Disclosure: There is no conflict of interest.
Abstract: EP1347
Type: ePoster
Abstract Category: Clinical aspects of MS - 5 Epidemiology
Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of nervous System which affects young adults, especially young females. This study aimed to assess the geographical distribution of MS in Fars province in southern Iran using the spatial methods. Fars Province is one of the largest provinces in Iran which has a population of 4.6 million people.
Patients and methods: A total number of 5,868 patients diagnosed with MS according to the McDonald's criteria during 1990-2016 in Fars Province. Demographic and case-related information was obtained from the Iran MS Society (IMSS), Shiraz office database. Overall Fars Province has 29 counties. We used Bayesian spatial and Bayesian spatio-temporal models to study relative risk and trend of MS incidence in the Province and each county separately.
Results: Out of 5,868 registered MS patients, 82% were female. County-level crude incidence ratio ranged from 0.31 to 9 cases per 100,000 populations. The highest smoothed SIR (1.80) was in the Shiraz County in the center of Fars province, while the lowest smoothed SIR (0.11) was in the Zarindasht County in southern Fars. Moreover, there is an increase trend in MS incidence but very smooth.
Conclusion: Here we analyzed the geographical distribution of MS in part of Iran, to obtain a reliable map of disease incidence. This map may help us to identify the possible cluster and localize the risk areas. This epidemiologic approach may help us to find any possible underlying environmental causes of MS in Iran.
Keywords: Bayesian Spatio-tempral, BYM model, Multiple sclerosis, Incidence
Disclosure: There is no conflict of interest.